Angkor Wat explains a lost love in election

Since 2003, the Cambodian GDP has grown at an average of 7% per year. Life expectancy has risen from 59 to 63 over the same period and more people have access to clean water. But when the official results are announced in a couple of weeks, you will find that the ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) has lost 22 or 23 of its 90 seats. It has enough to retain a majority, but the opposition party will have won about 56 seats, whilst believing that it actually won more if not most.

For a few days over the election, I was in Siem Reap, and parts of it encapsulates why some people have fallen out of love with the CPP.

Who could say no?

Siem Reap, home to Angkor Wat, has some of the most luxurious hotels I have ever seen and restaurants which would be expensive in London. And like Phnom Penh, you will see large 4x4 Lexus and Range Rovers dominating the roads in amongst people on motos. For a province in which the Tonle Sap floods annually, the trickle down of these riches remain dry; Siem Reap is the second poorest province in Cambodia. It is a place where 2 million internationals come to visit but in which local people leave for Thailand in order to find work.

This juxtaposition of garish wealth and enduring poverty does not go unnoticed. During the election campaign in Phnom Penh, it was noticeable how many expensive cars also had CPP stickers or flags on them. The symbolism of who would benefit from a CPP victory stark. For some, the distaste runs deeper than a gap in wealth, being borne from a sense that Cambodia itself is being sold for others to profit from.

People queueing up to vote in a polling station (a school). You could vote from 7am - 3pm. At 4pm, it started raining - impeccable timing. 

Sokimex is a company ubiquitous because of the number of petrol stations that it has dotted on the highways. It has also managed to secure a 99-year lease on managing, and taking large revenues from, the Angkor Wat Archaeological Park. People find it strange that the building that appears on their flag can be leased to a private company to make huge profits from. 

In my area of work here, education, one statistic stood out for me. Between 2009 and 2012, there was only 1 province of 24 in which primary net enrolment fell (% of children aged 6-11 enrolled in primary school). That province was Siem Reap. When local people look around at all of the wealth, they do not feel that they or pubic services are benefiting. (Plus, they complain about the price of petrol. Clinton's mantra could actually have been "It's the price of petrol, stupid"). 

Just voted and got the ink to prove it. My tuk tuk driver friend was able to wash the ink off quite easily, which caused some to joke that he wasn't actually Khmer (because he hadn't been able to vote). Others found it a more serious issue because of potential double voting, which has been alleged.

When in the Angkor Wat Park, my bicycle got a flat tyre. A tuk tuk driver offered to put my bike and me in his tuk tuk and drive me to the nearest bicycle repair shop, which are not common in an archaeological park. After deflecting his questions about who I thought would win or which leader I liked more, I asked him who he voted for. He told me that before he "loved" the CPP, but now, he voted for the opposition. He was not happy, he wanted change. 

The man was speaking Khmer to me, so he knew the word that he was using, and he deliberately used the word love. The jilted lover that is the CPP now has to decide whether to go it alone or change its ways, and the new mistress (Cambodian National Rescue Party) will have to decide whether to push for a full-blown messy divorce based on a belief that they won the election or be content to wait for five years. 

Make love, not war. Supporters from Funcinpec and Cambodian National Rescue Party shake hands during a parade before the election. Funcinpec used to be a coalition partner of the CPP, has royalist links and lost all of its seats in this year's election. 

I think most are hoping that both sides choose their latter options. 

Lots of love folks

Gordon

Postscript added 31.07.13
My last sentence should have read:
I think some are hoping that both sides choose their latter options, whilst for others, it's not just a case of whether the CNRP accepts a CPP government or not, but whether the people will accept a CPP government or not.

Speaking to some more people today, admittedly in CNRP hotbed country (Phnom Penh), they say that everybody now knows that the CNRP won the election, so if the people have asked for change, change is what should happen. The CNRP has taken the first step to rejecting the CPP's unofficial results by releasing their own provisional results showing they won at least  63 of the 123 seats. Enough to form a government.

The more support shown for the CNRP, the bolder more people are becoming. Weeks ago people would have been frightened of speaking out, but now they feel that they are the ones in the majority and cannot be silenced. When asked about possible violent repercussions if the CNRP demands CPP hands over power, they said that the CNRP must not back down.

Cambodian election: change or no change?

Last July, some of my colleagues were showing a mix of frustration, incredulity and hopelessness. Results from the commune council elections (local elections) showed that the ruling party, the Cambodian People's Party (CPP), had won 72% of all seats. The two main opposition parties (Sam Rainsy Party and the Human Rights Party) could only manage 26% seats between them.

L-R: Chea Sim (President, Senate), Hun Sen (Prime Minister), Heng Samrin (Chairman, National Assembly)
Together, they have ruled Cambodia since 1979 with Hun Sen the most powerful - top man since 1985. Such billboards are everywhere throughout the country crediting these three men with all development - schools are often named after them.

Despite the CPP being in power since the invading Vietnamese installed them in 1979, this was further proof that their dominance has been increasing with every election. Some colleagues felt let down by their countrymen, finding it hard to accept that others did not see the need for change that they believed in. Or rather, they felt that people had sold a brighter future for a sarong or few dollars - usual gifts given out by the ruling party before elections.

Now some of those people are hoping again. The two opposition parties merged to become the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and its President, Sam Rainsy, returned last Friday from years of exile (fear of imprisonment) to be welcomed by 100,000 people. This Sunday, Cambodians will vote in national elections and the shouts of "change!" are being heard louder than ever before.

The CNRP is number 7 on the ballot list so this is the popular sign of support for them.  The CPP is number 4.
This was taken at the rally welcoming back Sam Rainsy. I was passing by & took this video

Two weeks ago, I was having dinner with a Khmer friend at a restaurant and we could hear motos driving past shouting "change!" at each other. We then saw a convoy of motos with the leader shouting "Change or no change?" and the masses yelling "Change" in response. The waitress in the restaurant started talking openly (in Khmer) about her distaste for the ruling party and the corruption within it. Only weeks before, even if in English which most don't understand, this conversation would have been conducted in hushed tones.

Every night now, there are throngs of mainly young people out on their motos driving around Phnom Penh. The numbers are huge and the fervour is real, drawing people form their houses to support them as they go past. A friend in Takhmao (large town near Phnom Penh) says the same is happening there and another back from Battambang (a large town) was surprised to see so many people out there too.

CPP campaign parade with loudspeaker, music, big screen and video playing. A lot higher tech than the CNRP parades like the one that took 30 minutes to go past my flat on Sunday - here's a video (shorter than 30 mins...)

Of course, the CPP have their convoys and parades, which are also numerous. But, in Phnom Penh at least, the fervour is not there. As some colleagues explained, many people are on the streets because the CPP pays you money, food and petrol, whereas for the CNRP, tuk tuk drivers are donating two days salary for the campaign.

CPP parade just near my work

This fervour is worrying some people. The Prime Minister has predicted a troublesome future if the CPP loses the election and the reality is that the CPP still have enough support in the predominant rural areas to win the election, probably easily. And if they didn't, they would still ensure that they won the election. The whole state - crucially the army and police - are subsumed under the control of the ruling party.

I think most believe that the CPP will win but that it will be closer than before and that this will be a step towards a much closer election next time. The worry is that with great fervour, can come great disappointment. How the people who believe in change react will be the key to whether that next election will be closer or not.

Gordon